.Introduction
Development is concerned with the people and the goal is to help them meet their needs irrespective of whether they are rural or urban. For the purpose of planning and development of any area, population and population density play a key role. The number of the people and where and how they live are important in developing strategies for meeting their present needs and sustain their ability to satisfy their future needs. Nepal is still predominantly rural. Elevated figures of the level of urbanization may have implications on rural development. There may be forced urbanization with premature loss of agricultural land and sprawl growth which is difficult to be serviced. Rural population may have to pay more taxes while getting less services, which increases the gap between the rich and the poor. Development strategies should differ according to the level of urbanization and the concomitant land use pattern.
Built environment should be planned and shaped for a given number of people to be served. How they live and where they live should influence all the actions on meeting their needs and make them happy. Different policies and strategies are required for the development of rural and urban areas as their environments and needs are different. These may vary with the density of population, people’s social behavior and cultural habits, their occupation and work places, their standard of living, the resources they use for meeting their needs and so on.
One of the reasons for the increase of urban population in Nepal is the urbanization of rural areas. There will be premature loss of environmental resources, agricultural land in particular if the process is not managed in a sustainable way. It is necessary to manage the urbanization of rural areas while ensuring sustainability and providing access for all to the opportunities it creates. In order to make the response and strategies relevant for their development, it is necessary to restrict the sprawl growth and the premature loss of environmental resources, agricultural land in particular. Categorizing rural areas as urban may affect their development pattern encouraging sprawl growth and the formation of slums. They may face forced urbanization with the wasting of scarce resources.
Urbanization leads to rapid use of natural resources. More urban population means more intensive use of resources. A municipality may be financially feasible at the present time with heavy use and loss of environmental resource. Designation of a rural area as urban will affect sustainability as there will be a tendency to overuse the natural resources for a fewer population. This will increase sprawl growth and the provision of urban infrastructure and services will be more complex. Rural people will have to pay higher urban tax. Agriculture becomes less feasible with fragmentation due to sprawl growth. A higher estimate for urban population may undermine sustainability. Rural people may be prompted to quit agriculture and related occupations. It is thus necessary to estimate urban population in view of sustainability. The purpose of this paper is to make an estimate of urban population of Nepal considering sustainability as the main concern. The paper is expected to generate a better understanding of the implications of exaggerated values of the urban population on sustainability.
Level of urbanization and resource use
The population of the then 58 municipalities accounted for 17.1 percent in 2011. Nepal’s National Report to Habitat III estimated the level of urbanization of Nepal as 38.8 percent in 2016. According to the preliminary result of the Census of 2021, this figure rose to 66 percent with the number of municipalities totaling 293 (including 6 metropolises and 11 sub-metropolises). The total population of all the municipalities is 19.3 millions accounting for 66 percent of the total population of Nepal. As it is clearly mentioned in the Census Report that municipalities may comprise of rural areas, this figure should not be confused with the level of urbanization in Nepal. It is true that the total population of all the municipalities is 66 percent of the population of Nepal. But this is not totally urban. However, the total population of all the municipalities is often loosely referred to be the urban population as this may serves the interest of the business and bureaucracy. This may also encourage municipalities to make an overuse of their land resources by locating activities for immediate returns without considering sustainability. This may justify them to urbanize rural and agricultural land with premature loss of environmental resources.
Urbanization that is taking place in Nepal involves rapid loss of natural resources. There is a lack of rigorous planning and implementation necessary for ensuring an optimum use of land while transforming urbanizing areas into sustainable built environment. As per Nepal’s National Report to Habitat III, all the municipalities are advised to divide their land area into three categories – a) already urbanized areas with shortage of infrastructure and services that needs to be serviced with the provision of infrastructure and services. b) would-be urbanized areas appropriate for planned urban development to accommodate the urbanizing population and c) conservation areas with rural characteristic for ecosystem services. Sprawl and haphazard development should be avoided for this means premature loss of environmental resources, agricultural land in particular. This also makes the provision of infrastructure and urban services more complex and costly. In order to ensure planned and sustainable urbanization, the resources of the rural areas should be used wisely. It is necessary to urbanize appropriate areas of a region where infrastructure and services can be provided in a sustainable way without making premature loss of resources.
Some issues to be addressed in estimating the level of urbanization
It is difficult to make a clear-cut distinction between rural and urban areas. It is a relative concept. Their inter-linkages and integration for sustainability are more important. Municipalities have some rural areas and VDCs (Rural Municipalities) have some urban areas. Urban areas need some rural areas for ecosystem services in urban areas and villages need some urban services for agricultural development and for basic needs. This makes it not easy to make an estimate of urban population. For rural development, it is necessary to manage urbanization in a sustainable manner. It is necessary to consider density of population as one of the key parameters for this distinction. Municipalities should optimize the use of their land resources in the context of sustainable development.
Many municipalities haves a mixture of dense urban areas and agricultural rural areas. The strategies for them need to be different. Otherwise, the rural population assuming to be the part of the municipality may prematurely shift to urban culture and use the available resources in an unsustainable way. As the demand of the population for urban goods and services will not increase, it will just be the wasting of the resources. Moreover, new developments will be scattered with sprawl growth that makes agriculture less feasible. Not only will the agriculture be affected badly, the transformation to an urban pattern will also not take place due to shortage of resources and limited demand for urban goods and service.
The level of urbanization of an area has implications on strategies and policies appropriate for the development of the area. It is necessary to properly manage the production, distribution, and consumption of the necessary goods and services according to the demand of the people which will increase with the level of urbanization. Rural people will not be able to afford the urban goods and services. It will be difficult to estimate the necessary inputs for the development of agriculture with the urbanization of agricultural land. What activities will be taking where within an area or a region will determine the demand for goods and services. For instance, water supply and energy for any area are planned according to the projected demand that depends on the affordability and the income of the people of the area.
Is it desirable to consider the population of a municipality to be totally urban? The answer is no for two reasons. Some rural areas are necessary to be integrated into the emerging urban ecosystem. Urban areas also need open spaces, greenery, urban agriculture and urban forestry for the proper functioning of the urban economy. Deliberate urbanization needs to be planned and properly managed for the sustainable use of the ever depleting resources. Rural areas will any way be subject to urbanization due to market forces and the nature of the governance. Moreover, the rural area within the municipality should be protected and conserved as such and not exposed to premature urbanization. Accepting the reality on the basis of the needs and priorities of different stakeholders, it is necessary to allow deliberate urbanization for integrating rural areas into municipalities. Rural areas have relatively less density with people engaged mainly in agriculture. Development strategies for them will mean urbanizing the limited area while protecting the agricultural and forest land. For rural development also, urban activities are necessary. Industries based on agriculture may have to be placed near the farms for easy transport of the agricultural products. Development of the rural areas also means the availability of basic health and educational services and some market functions.
Sustainability is threatened with the overuse of limited resources. This may happen with the forced urbanization of rural areas. In other words, a higher estimate of the urban population of any area or a region may lead to over-exploitation of environmental resources. In the pursuit of fast urban development, there will be a tendency for all the actors to indulge in lavish use of the resources. Municipalities need funding for urban development, which becomes possible with the conversion of agricultural land into urban use. People convert their agricultural land to urban use to be able to to pay more taxes. Business activities depend on land as the main source of financing. It will be easier for different levels of the government to rule with more resources generated from the overuse of the resources.
When things become critical, the need for environmental protection through the implementation of urban planning tools like zoning and bye-laws will be realized. Returning to actions after a long time negligence becomes chaotic as is now happening in Kathmandu Metropolis. Compliance with the bye-laws means more costs that makes feasible activities infeasible. It is not possible to pursue environmental goals in a short run without affecting the production, growth and equity. The sudden priority on planned development will have repercussions on equity and growth especially when activities are dislocated with demolition of buildings and infrastructure.
An estimate for urban population of Nepal
The foregoing shows that it is difficult to differentiate between urban and rural areas. The distinction between urban and rural areas has become blurred. Municipalities comprise of rural and urban areas with rural and urban population. It is clear that cities should have rural areas and villages should have some urban areas. Even in case of densely urbanized municipalities, some rural activities will be present, which means the presence of the rural population. Similarly, it is necessary to have urbanized areas in rural areas for agriculture and rural development. Rural population engaged in urban agriculture, forestry and other green sector activities may be considered to have been integrated into the urban culture of living. For making a rough but realistic estimate, municipalities may be categorized as follows:
1. Metropolises
2. Sub-metropolises
3. Municipalities other than metropolises and sub-metropolises with density of population greater that 1000 persons per km2
4. Municipalities with population between 100,000 and 155,000 with population between 100,000 and 155000 and density less than 1000 persons per km2
5. Municipalities with population between 70,000 and 100,0000 and density less than 1000 persons per km2
6. Remaining municipalities with population less than 70,00 and density less than 1000 per km2
There are six metropolises: Kathmandu, Pokhara, Lalitpur, Biratnagar, Bharatpur, and Birganj. Metropolises will have little prospect for agriculture as a main occupation. They may develop their rural areas as urban agriculture and urban forestry and greenery. They are considered to be totally urban as all will be engaged in urban activities. They may generate financial resources through the planned use of the land still to be developed.
There are 11 sub-metropolises: Ghorahi, Dhangadhi, Itahari, Hetauda, Janakpur, Butwal, Tulsipur, Dharan, Nepalgunj, Kalaiya, and Jitpur Simra, They will have an urge to urbanize their relatively lower density areas. Given the size of the population and the resources they have, they will have no problems in managing land development in a sustainable manner. It is assumed that any rural area within them will be well integrated with the growing urban needs in the form of greenery, dumping sites, open spaces and urban agriculture, parks and other amenities. Sub-metropolises are assumed to have sufficient resources and funds for further urbanization. They are considered to be totally urban.
Under category 3, there are 19 Municipalities with population density greater than 1000 persons per km2 in 2021. They are: Birtamod, Banepa, Kirtipur, Sarah, Siddharthanagar, Madhyapur Thimi, Bhaktapur, Damask, Rajbiraj, Triyua, Mahalaxmi, Nagarjun, Chandragiri, Kageswori, Gokorneswore, Budhanilkantha, Tokha and Malangwa. As the density of population is relatively higher, it will be difficult to identify potential area for agricultural development. It may be necessary to promote urban agriculture, urban forestry and green areas for sustaining ecosystems. They need to be urbanized integrating the rural areas with the urban economy. The rural population within them are assumed to be integrated with sustainable urban development. As they have relatively higher density of population, they have less agricultural land. Under these assumptions, they are considered to be totally urban.
For category 4, there are 8 municipalities. They are Mechinagar, Kohalpur, Birendranagar, Godavari, Lahan, Sundarharaicha, Mechinagar and Bhim Dutta. Since the density of population is relatively lower, 10 percent of their population is considered to be rural.
For category 5, there are 6 municipalities with population between 70000 and 100000 and density less than 1000 persons per km2 in 2021. They are Kawasoti, Inarwa, Tikapur, Gulariya, Vyas and Kamalamai. It is assumed that 20 percent of the population are still rural with engagement in agriculture and related fields as the main occupation. They will be encouraged for sustaining and integrating agricultural land with the urban economy.
There are 243 municipalities under category 6. Half of their population will be considered as rural. Strategies for rural and agricultural development will be prepared and implemented for their rural areas.
Under the above assumptions, the urban population of Nepal is calculated as shown in Table I below. The total urban population is 14 million accounting for 48.1 percent of the total population of Nepal.
Table I: Calculation of the urban population of Nepal
| Category | Name of municipalities | Population | ||
| Total | urban 2546462 | Rural 0 | ||
| 1. | Kathmandu, Pokhara, Lalitpur, Biratnagar, Bharatpur, and Birganj | 2546462 | ||
| 2 | Ghorahi, Dhangadhi, Itahari, Hetauda, Janakpur, Butwal, Tulsipur, Dharan, Nepalgunj, Kalaiya, and Jitpur Simra, | 1938227 | 1938227 | 0 |
| 3 | Birtamod, Banepa, Kirtipur, Sarah, Siddharthanagar, Madhyapur Thimi, Bhaktapur, Damask, Rajbiraj, Triyua, Mahalaxmi, Nagarjun, Chandragiri, Kageswori, Gokorneswore, Budhanilkantha, Tokha, and Malangwa | 3059406 | 3059406 | 0 |
| 4 | Mechinagar, Kohalpur, Birendranagar, Godavari, Lahan, Sundarharaicha, Mechinagar and Bhim Dutta | 975763 | 878187 | 97576 |
| 5 | Kawasoti, Inarwa, Tikapur, Gulariya, Vyas and Kamalamai | 480834 | 384667 | 96167 |
| Total | 9000692 | 8806949 | 193743 | |
| 6 | Remaining 243 municipalites | 10266345 | 5133172 | 5133172 5326915 |
| Total | 19267037 | 14037173 | ||
| Percentage | 66 | 66 | 48.1 |
Conclusion
The population of the existing municipalities as of 2021 accounts for 66 percent of the total population of Nepal in 2021.This figure is often confused with the level of urbanization. It is necessary to understand that this Census figure of 66 percent refers to the total population of the all the municipalities which are not totally urban. It is obvious that a higher level will make the market forces and bureaucratic expenses urge municipalities to overuse their natural resources. With the assumptions made above, the percentage of urban population is computed to be 48.1 percent as shown in the Table above. This figure will encourage municipalities to integrate development and environment and consider sustainability in their pursuit for economic growth. In other words, this will help them to make a balance between sustainability and development. Given the complexity of distinguishing between urban and rural areas and the growing need for the integration of rural and urban ares, it may be a futile and costly exercise to determine the exact urban population of Nepal as a whole. Notwithstanding with what is said here, it is necessary for a municipality to develop its own specific strategies for development and sustainability. Municipalities should continue to pursue their economic growth with inclusiveness of all for equity and the wise use of resources for sustainability. In designating new municipalities in the future, the government should assess the potentials of the areas for sustainable urban development apart from the size of the population. Municipalities should have some rural population; but integration of the rural areas should be a major concern.